Model evaluation for clt

• Climate variables used as response: - sfcWind, tas, pr: original scale daily, reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds: original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily

• Training: All models are trained using ERA5 in reduced scale as observations. Training data perdiod: 1980 - 2015.

• Validation Period: 2015-01-29 to 2023-12-03

• Response variable to predict: upscaled ERA5 (daily or monthly)

• Predictors variables: daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds , the month and the daily daylight amount in seconds.

Numerical evaluation metrics

• Each row correspond an evaluation metric
• Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
• Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.

Metric	xgboost	cnn	naive	lstm
mae	12.07	14.42	14.54	12.34
cor	0.84	0.77	0.76	0.82
ratio_of_sd	0.81	0.81	0.76	0.86
KGE	0.75	0.68	0.67	0.78
amplitude_mae_monthly	16.11	16.83	16.97	13.45
sign_correlation	0.75	0.72	0.70	0.75
extreme_correlation	0.53	0.44	0.52	0.58
qqplot_mae	4.80	5.40	7.48	3.78
acf_mae	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.02
extremogram_mae	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02

Graphical evaluation metrics

• Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

• Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

• Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

• In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.