Climate variables used as response: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: All models are trained using ERA5 in reduced scale as observations. Training data perdiod: 1980 - 2015.
Validation Period: 2015-01-29 to 2023-12-03
Response variable to predict: upscaled ERA5 (daily or monthly)
Predictors variables: daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds ,
the month and the daily daylight amount in seconds.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 12.07 | 14.42 | 14.54 | 12.34 |
| cor | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| KGE | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| amplitude_mae_monthly | 16.11 | 16.83 | 16.97 | 13.45 |
| sign_correlation | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| qqplot_mae | 4.80 | 5.40 | 7.48 | 3.78 |
| acf_mae | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.